Washington Wizards at Miami Heat

Miami Heat vs. Washington Wizards — Game-Specific Matchup Intelligence

April 4, 2026 | 3:00 PM ET | Kaseya Center, Miami, FL

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Today's Injury/Availability Status (CONFIRMED, T-2h)

• Norman Powell — OUT (illness): 5th consecutive missed game. Was around teammates Friday but Powell confirmed he's still recovering and was "very sick." Return target remains Tuesday at Toronto (Sun Sentinel; Heavy.com)
• Tyler Herro — PROBABLE (foot soreness): Officially listed as probable for today's game. Played 40 minutes in Wednesday's loss to Boston (18 pts, 7 ast). Status confirmed by official Heat injury report (Heavy.com pre-game)
• Andrew Wiggins — AVAILABLE (left big toe sesamoiditis): Upgraded beyond probable to fully "Available" per official Heat injury report cited by @SleeperHeat: "Available: Andrew Wiggins (toe)" — green light to play (Heavy.com)
• Terry Rozier — OUT (not with team): Ongoing non-injury absence; waiver expected by April 9

Net change vs. early entry: Wiggins has been upgraded from PROBABLE → AVAILABLE/confirmed active. All other statuses are unchanged.

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Rest & Travel Situation

Miami last played Wednesday, April 1 (home loss vs. Boston, 129–147). 2 full days of rest heading into this 3 PM tip. No travel required; home game at Kaseya Center.

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Betting Lines — Movement Snapshot

Snapshot	Spread	Moneyline (MIA)	Total
T-12h (early run)	MIA -17.5 (-110) / WAS +17.5 (-105)	Heat -2128	246.5 (BetMGM) / 248.5 (iHeart model)
T-2h (this update)	MIA -18.5 (-105) / WAS +18.5 (-115)	Heat -3000	246.5

Line movement analysis: The spread has moved a full point in Miami's favor — from -17.5 to -18.5 — since the early run. The moneyline jumped dramatically from -2128 to -3000, an extraordinary shift suggesting sharp/syndicate money hammering the Heat side, not public noise. The total has held relatively stable at 246.5 (per Action Network), with the iHeart computer model's 248.5 now appearing as an outlier. The move to -18.5 is notable: it crosses a key hook number, meaning Washington covers at exactly 18 with the new spread but not the old one. Bettors on +17.5 from earlier in the day now hold a better number.

Sources: Action Network; The Athletic/BetMGM; 1230 The Gambler

Polymarket implied probability: Heat 92.5% / Wizards 7.5% (Polymarket)

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Head-to-Head History (2025-26 Season)

Miami leads 2-0 vs. Washington:

• Feb 8, 2026: Miami 132–101 (covered -12.5 easily)
• Mar 10, 2026: Miami 150–129 — Adebayo's historic 83-point game; covered -16.5 by 4.5 pts (Basketball-Reference)

Both prior meetings were blowout Heat wins. Today's spread (-18.5) is the largest of the three matchups.

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Matchup Advantages & Vulnerabilities

Heat Advantages:

• Wiggins now confirmed available, giving Miami a 5-man rotation with Adebayo, Herro, Wiggins, Larsson, and Jaquez. Larsson (13.5 PPG / 3.7 APG last 20 games) has been one of Miami's most consistent performers. Herro averages 18.9 PPG over the same stretch (1230 The Gambler)
• Bam Adebayo (23.8 PPG / 10.0 RPG last 20 games) remains the matchup nightmare. Alex Sarr — Washington's only viable big (16.3 PPG / 7.4 RPG) — is still QUESTIONABLE with a toe injury. If Sarr sits, Adebayo has free reign in the paint
• Washington's offense is 26th in the NBA at 112.7 PPG vs. a Miami defense allowing 118.2 PPG (22nd). Washington is outrebounded by 5.8/game, fueling Miami's fast-break attack (2nd in NBA)
• Washington's confirmed OUT players (Trae Young, Anthony Davis, D'Angelo Russell) strip all shot creation and interior defense. Will Riley (15.7 PPG last 20) leads Washington's active roster

Heat Vulnerabilities:

• Powell's continued absence (5th straight game) means Miami's leading scorer (22.1 PPG season avg per Action Network) is out again. Herro (PROBABLE) and Wiggins (AVAILABLE) partially offset this, but the Heat's ceiling is lower without Powell
• Miami is 2-8 over their last 10 games — a significant cold stretch heading into must-win territory. Players have called it "terrible." Urgency is there, but execution has been inconsistent

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ATS & Total Trends

• Miami ATS record: 44-32-1 this season (1230 The Gambler)
• Washington ATS record as 17.5+ point underdogs: 3-2 this season — covers happen
• Total (over/under) in Washington games: 43-33 OVER, 56.6% of games go over (The Spread)
• OddsShark historical note (from early run): Total has gone UNDER in 6 of Miami's last 9 vs. Washington
• Computer model (iHeart/1230 The Gambler): Projects Heat 127, Wizards 110 = 237 total — suggests UNDER at 246.5 has value

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Motivation & Context

Miami (40-37, 10th seed Eastern Conference) needs to win all 5 remaining games to realistically escape the play-in bracket. This Washington matchup is the clearest win opportunity left on their schedule. Home crowd at Kaseya Center (24-15 home record). Following today's game, Miami travels to Toronto on Tuesday — Powell's next return target.

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Market Inefficiency Flags

• Line jumped to -18.5: The 1-point move toward Miami since T-12h, combined with a moneyline surge to -3000, suggests sharp money on Heat. However, crossing 18.5 may mean the official spread has overshot — Washington is 3-2 ATS as 17.5+ dogs this season
• Wiggins upgrade: Fully "Available" status confirms a healthier Miami rotation than some early models priced in — marginally bullish for the Heat spread
• Sarr QUESTIONABLE: Still unresolved at T-2h. If Sarr sits, Washington's interior is completely hollowed out and Adebayo's point total prop likely goes over
• Total stability: Despite the spread move, the total has not budged from 246.5. Computer model suggests 237 actual total — the UNDER appears to have retained value even as spread money flowed to Miami

Washington Wizards at Miami Heat — Game-Specific Matchup (April 4, 2026)

Last updated: ~2 hours before tip-off (3 PM ET)

Today's Availability — Final/Near-Final Statuses

OUT (Confirmed):

• Alex Sarr — OUT (left big toe capsulitis). CBS Sports injury page lists him as "expected to be out until at least Apr 5," effectively ruling him out today. RotoWire (updated Apr 3) and ESPN note he is "trying to end a three-game absence" — but CBS Sports' tracker is definitive. Note: Some pre-game reports (FOX Sports 940 injury report, 1230 The Gambler) still listed him as QUESTIONABLE on the official report; CBS Sports tracker is the most recently updated source and points to OUT. (CBS Sports injuries, Apr 4)
• Anthony Davis — OUT (finger; expected out until at least Apr 9) (CBS Sports)
• D'Angelo Russell — OUT (not injury related; expected out until at least Apr 15) (CBS Sports)
• Trae Young — OUT (right quadricep; expected out until at least Apr 5) (CBS Sports)
• Cam Whitmore — OUT for season (shoulder) (CBS Sports)
• Kyshawn George — OUT for season (elbow) (CBS Sports)
• Tristan Vukcevic — ⚠️ DOWNGRADED to OUT (low back tightness). The official @WashWizards account posted a game-day update confirming Vukcevic is OUT, a change from his earlier QUESTIONABLE (knee) designation. (Washington Wizards X, Apr 4)

UPGRADED/Newly Available:

• — ⚠️ . The official @WashWizards account confirmed Coulibaly (right heel bursitis) has been upgraded and will play. Earlier in the day he was listed QUESTIONABLE; SportsGrid had him as OUT as of midday. This is a significant positive roster update for Washington. (; confirmed via )