San Antonio Spurs at Oklahoma City Thunder

OKC Thunder — WCF Game 2 vs. San Antonio Spurs (May 20, 2026)

Injury/Availability Status (CONFIRMED as of ~T-2h)

• Thomas Sorber — OUT (right ACL surgical recovery, season-long). The Thunder's ONLY player on the injury report.
• Jalen Williams — ACTIVE, no injury designation. Confirmed by The Oklahoman (May 20, 9:00 a.m. CT) and OKC Thunder Wire (May 20, 8:01 a.m. CT). The limping observed in Game 1 OT has not resulted in any designation. Williams is a full go.
• All other rotation players: ACTIVE. OKC is fully healthy barring Sorber.

UPDATE from early run: The "monitor Williams" flag is now resolved — he carries no injury designation as of multiple same-day sources. Fatigue/conditioning management remains a strategic concern (37 min, 25 shots in Game 1 in his first game back after a month off), but no formal restriction.

Confirmed Starting Lineup

Per The Oklahoman and NBC Sports: PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander | SG Lu Dort (NBC) / Cason Wallace (Oklahoman) | SF Jalen Williams | PF Chet Holmgren | C Isaiah Hartenstein

Note: Minor discrepancy between sources on Dort vs. Wallace as starting SG — both are in the rotation and the difference is largely cosmetic for this analysis.

Betting Lines — Movement Summary

T-12h Lines (from early run, ~May 19-20 overnight):

• Spread: Thunder -6.5 (-110) | Spurs +6.5 (-110)
• Moneyline: Thunder -240 to -250 | Spurs +198 to +205
• Total: O/U 215.5–216.5

T-2h Lines (as of this morning, May 20):

• BetMGM (9:54 a.m. ET via USA Today live blog): Spread Thunder -6.5 | ML Thunder -250 / Spurs +200 | Total 216.5
• DraftKings (via DK Network and NBC Sports): Spread Thunder -6.5 to -7.5 | ML Thunder -238 / Spurs +195 | Total 216.5–217.5

Line Movement Analysis:

• Spread: BetMGM is holding at -6.5, stable from T-12h. DraftKings has moved to -7.5 on one report (DK Network article), though NBC Sports/DraftKings shows -6.5 as of Wednesday morning — suggesting the -7.5 may reflect a brief movement that has since settled back, or a book-specific discrepancy. The consensus spread remains OKC -6.5, with some DK movement toward -7.
• Total: The game opened at 218.5 (per NBC Sports/DraftKings), and has moved DOWN to 216.5–217.5 across books — a 1–2 point drop from open. This suggests money has been coming in on the UNDER, consistent with the "Under hits in 6 of OKC's last 7 home games vs. SA" trend noted in the early run, and fatigue concerns from the double-OT Game 1 grind (SGA 51 min, Holmgren 40+ min, Williams 37 min).
• Moneyline: Slight softening — Thunder ML has moved from -250 (early) toward -238 on DraftKings, suggesting marginal two-way action without major sharp movement.
• Series odds (BetMGM, via USA Today): Thunder -115 | Spurs -105 — essentially a coin flip for the series despite OKC being Game 2 favorites, reflecting the market's respect for San Antonio after Game 1.

Game 1 Recap & Key Adjustments Needed

• WCF Game 1 (May 18): Spurs 122, Thunder 115 (2OT). Series: Spurs lead 1-0.
• Wembanyama: 41 pts/24 reb (49 min). Dylan Harper: 24 pts/11 reb/7 ast.
• SGA: 24 pts/12 ast but 7-for-23 FG, passive in H1 (4 pts at half). Holmgren: 8 pts on 2-for-7 FG (though 2-for-4 from 3 per DK Network). Caruso: 31 pts (8-for-14 from 3, career-high). Williams: 26 pts on 25 shots (first game back from hamstring injury). OKC shot 9-for-31 (29%) from 3 as a team ex-Caruso per NBC Sports.
• Adjustment narrative: Per NBC Sports, OKC is expected to better position SGA in advantageous spots to attack. The Oklahoman expects Daigneault to lean more on Holmgren to guard Wembanyama (rather than burning Williams/Caruso). Spurs countered with Stephon Castle's 11 turnovers running PG in place of Fox — an exploitable weakness if Fox remains out or limited.

Rest & Fatigue

One full day of rest (Game 1 Monday → Game 2 Wednesday). No travel. SGA (51 min), Holmgren (40+ min), Williams (37 min, first game back) all logged heavy Game 1 workloads. Total fatigue is a legitimate factor. The total's downward drift from 218.5 → 216.5–217.5 reflects this concern.

Head-to-Head & ATS Context

• Regular season: Spurs went 3-1 SU vs. OKC; Thunder 0-for-4 ATS as favorite.
• OKC is 8-0 SU off a playoff loss over the past two postseason runs per DK Network (33-7 SU, 22-17-1 ATS coming off a loss across past two seasons).
• OKC regular season ATS: 44-46-1 per NBC Sports. Spurs ATS: 54-39-2 — a notably better cover team all season.
• OKC home record: 38-8 SU (NBC Sports); 34-7 per DK Network.

Market Inefficiency Flags

• Williams injury risk resolved: The early run flagged Williams limping as an unpriced risk. That flag is now cleared — he's confirmed active with no designation. The spread likely already incorporates a healthy Williams.
• Total moved down from open: The 218.5 → 216.5 move suggests the market believes fatigue + defensive adjustments will suppress scoring. The "OVER in 51 of 91 Thunder games" trend vs. a fatigue-driven UNDER is the key total debate.
• SGA scoring prop at 29.5 (DraftKings): After a 24-point, 7-for-23 Game 1, his scoring prop is priced as if he rebounds strongly. If Wembanyama's rim deterrence suppresses SGA again, the under 29.5 has value; if SGA attacks with normal aggression (56 of 68 regular season games over 25 pts), the over 25 is the safer play at -324.
• Holmgren bounce-back prop: Under 14.5 points cited as a best bet by Lineups.com, though DK Network targets 2+ made 3s at +125. Wembanyama's presence is a legitimate suppressor of Holmgren's typical output.
• Spurs ATS value: NBC Sports/Rotoworld model recommends Spurs +6.5 ATS. San Antonio's 54-39-2 ATS record and 3-1 regular-season SU vs. OKC this year support the underdog angle.

Spurs vs. Thunder — WCF Game 2 Matchup Intelligence (May 20, 2026) — FINAL PRE-TIP UPDATE

⚠️ KEY UPDATE SINCE EARLY RUN: Fox Confirmed INACTIVE for Game 2

De'Aaron Fox — OUT (right ankle soreness): Fox has been confirmed INACTIVE for Game 2. The San Antonio Express-News' Tom Orsborn (Spurs primary beat writer) lists Fox explicitly in the inactive column: "Inactive: De'Aaron Fox (right ankle soreness), David Jones Garcia (two-way), Harrison Ingram (two-way), Emanuel Miller (two-way)." This upgrades his status from the morning's "questionable / game-time decision." A supporting shootaround report from Heavy.com (updated 1:03 p.m. CT today) noted Fox was present at shootaround but "did not participate in live shooting drills during the portion open to media" — a clear signal he would not go. Coach Mitch Johnson reiterated through morning that it would be a game-time decision and he was deferring entirely to Fox, but the roster submission resolves it: Fox is out for a second consecutive game. (San Antonio Express-News, May 20; Heavy.com, May 20 – updated 1:03 p.m.)

Luke Kornet — ACTIVE (no designation): A meaningful positive update from the early run. Kornet appears in the SA reserves list for Game 2 without a designation, meaning he is available after being listed as questionable (left foot soreness) for Game 1. (San Antonio Express-News, May 20)

Victor Wembanyama — NO designation, expected to play: Confirmed available with no injury concern listed. (Times of India / NBA sources, May 20)

Confirmed Probable Starting Lineup (Game 2)

Per Tom Orsborn / San Antonio Express-News:

• PG: Stephon Castle | SG: Dylan Harper | SF: Devin Vassell | PF: Julian Champagnie | C: Victor Wembanyama